论文标题：Abundance of impacted forest patches less than 5 km2 is a key driver of the incidence of malaria in Amazonian Brazil

期刊：Scientific Reports

作者：Leonardo Suveges Moreira Chaves, Jan E. Conn, Rossana Verónica Mendoza López & Maria Anice Mureb Sallum

发表时间： 2018/05/04

数字识别码：10.1038/s41598-018-25344-5

原文链接：https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-25344-5?utm_source=Other_website&utm_medium=Website_links&utm_content=RenLi-Nature-Scientific_Reports-Forestry-China&utm_campaign=SCIREP_USG_JRCN_RL_forest_sciencenet_article_3rd_July

在巴西的亚马逊流域，对农业住区和商业林作物区进行的森林砍伐会促进还是会抑制疟疾发病率的增长？这个问题的答案颇具争议。

《科学报告》发表的一项研究Abundance of impacted forest patches less than 5 km2 is a key driver of the incidence of malaria in Amazonian Brazil使用公开的数据库，分析了亚马逊州9个城市的疟疾发病率（2009-2015）与三个生态学变量的关系。这三个生态学变量分别为：（i）森林砍伐（即一段时间内的森林清除率）; （ii）退化林（即人为干扰程度和林冠砍伐的开放程度）和（iii）受到冲击的森林（即被砍伐和退化的森林斑块总和）。

来自巴西圣保罗大学的Leonardo Suveges Moreira Chaves及其同事发现，每有一平方公里的森林被砍伐，该地区便会新增27个疟疾病例（r² = 0.78; F1,10 = 35.81; P < 0.001）。出人意料的是，面积在5 km2以内的受冲击森林斑块数与疟疾病例之间存在高度的正相关关系，且所研究区域超过约95%的斑块大小均小于5 km2。提取林业经济指标与疟疾病例呈高度负相关。这些研究结果表明，砍伐森林不仅会提高疟疾发病率，还会直接或间接地降低人类发展指数，产生利于疟疾媒介物增殖的环境条件。

摘要：The precise role that deforestation for agricultural settlements and commercial forest products plays in promoting or inhibiting malaria incidence in Amazonian Brazil is controversial. Using publically available databases, we analyzed temporal malaria incidence (2009–2015) in municipalities of nine Amazonian states in relation to ecologically defined variables: (i) deforestation (rate of forest clearing over time); (ii) degraded forest (degree of human disturbance and openness of forest canopy for logging) and (iii) impacted forest (sum of deforested and degraded forest patches). We found that areas affected by one kilometer square of deforestation produced 27 new malaria cases (r² = 0.78; F1,10 = 35.81; P < 0.001). Unexpectedly, we found both a highly significant positive correlation between number of impacted forest patches less than 5 km2 and malaria cases, and that these patch sizes accounted for greater than ~95% of all patches in the study area. There was a significantly negative correlation between extraction forestry economic indices and malaria cases. Our results emphasize not only that deforestation promotes malaria incidence, but also that it directly or indirectly results in a low Human Development Index, and favors environmental conditions that promote malaria vector proliferation.

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（来源：科学网）