论文标题：Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions

期刊：Nature Communications

作者：S. S. Dhomse, W. Feng et.al

发表时间：2019/12/19

数字识别码：10.1038/s41467-019-13717-x

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《自然-通讯》发表的一项建模研究Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions显示，如果近期发现的三氯氟甲烷（CFC-11）排放增长持续下去，可能会让南极臭氧洞的恢复时间延迟十年以上。虽然CFC-11的排放水平和变化趋势仍有许多不确定之处，但快速停止排放或能将延迟时间控制在几年以内。

三氯氟甲烷（CFC-11）在过去和未来潜在的排放量。

图片来源：Chipperfield等

在排放到平流层的源于人类活动的氯中，约有四分之一来自CFC-11，其产量一直受到1987年《蒙特利尔议定书》的控制。议定书生效后，科学家预计南极臭氧洞将于21世纪下半叶早期恢复到1980年的损耗前水平。然而，2018年有报告称CFC-11排放自2005年以来并未出现预期的下降。这可能与中国境内未经上报的泡沫使用导致的排放有关。

英国利兹大学的Martyn Chipperfield和同事构建了详细的大气化学输送模型，研究了这些额外排放对极地臭氧恢复造成的影响。作者研究了CFC-11排放的三种可能趋势：一是立即停止排放；二是以一定的排放水平继续；三是在未来十年里逐渐停止排放。模拟显示，排放对臭氧洞的影响迄今较为有限。但是，如果排放以一定的水平持续，臭氧恢复至1980年水平的时间或延迟约18年。如果排放在未来十年里逐渐减少，延迟的时间约在两年左右。

摘要：The Antarctic ozone hole is decreasing in size but this recovery will be affected by atmospheric variability and any unexpected changes in chlorinated source gas emissions. Here, using model simulations, we show that the ozone hole will largely cease to occur by 2065 given compliance with the Montreal Protocol. If the unusual meteorology of 2002 is repeated, an ozone-hole-free-year could occur as soon as the early 2020s by some metrics. The recently discovered increase in CFC-11 emissions of ~ 13 Gg yr−1 may delay recovery. So far the impact on ozone is small, but if these emissions indicate production for foam use much more CFC-11 may be leaked in the future. Assuming such production over 10 years, disappearance of the ozone hole will be delayed by a few years, although there are significant uncertainties. Continued, substantial future CFC-11 emissions of 67 Gg yr−1 would delay Antarctic ozone recovery by well over a decade.

（来源：科学网）