华盛顿大学Simon I. Hay课题组绘制了2000年至2017年撒哈拉以南非洲地区艾滋病毒流行情况图。2019年5月15日出版的《自然》杂志发表了这一最新研究成果。

课题组人员通过估计2000年至2017年期间，在成年人(15-49岁)和艾滋病毒携带者中数中艾滋病毒的流行率，来探索撒哈拉以南非洲地区5×5公里分辨率范围内国家内部艾滋病毒的变异情况。他们的分析显示：在2000年至2017年，整个撒哈拉以南非洲地区的艾滋病毒流行率在国内发生和很大的变异，并且艾滋病毒的流行率在局部地区的方向和变化率上也存在差异，从某种程度上说，当在国家层面上调查时，一些重要的局部变异被忽视了。这些跨越时间、空间对艾滋病毒流行情况的精细估计为对撒哈拉以南非洲地区有针对性地干预控制艾滋病毒感染提供了一个重要工具。

据介绍，艾滋病毒/艾滋病是撒哈拉以南非洲地区一种主要的疾病负担来源。现有的证据表明，在当地艾滋病毒的流行有很大的变异;然而，这种变异尚未在整个非洲大陆地区从高空间分辨率角度进行研究。

附：英文原文

Title: Mapping HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2017

Author:Laura Dwyer-Lindgren, Michael A. Cork, Amber Sligar, Krista M. Steuben, Kate F. Wilson, Naomi R. Provost, Benjamin K. Mayala, John D. VanderHeide, Michael L. Collison, Jason B. Hall, Molly H. Biehl, Austin Carter, Tahvi Frank, Dirk Douwes-Schultz, Roy Burstein, Daniel C. Casey, Aniruddha Deshpande, Lucas Earl, Charbel El Bcheraoui, Tamer H. Farag, Nathaniel J. Henry, Damaris Kinyoki, Laurie B. Marczak, Molly R. Nixon, Aaron Osgood-Zimmerman, David Pigott, Robert C. Reiner Jr, Jennifer M. Ross, Lauren E. Schaeffer, David L. Smith, Nicole Davis Weaver, Kirsten E. Wiens, Jeffrey W. Eaton, Jessica E. Justman, Alex Opio, Benn Sartorius, Frank Tanser, Njeri Wabiri, Peter Piot, Christopher J. L. Murray & Simon I. Hay

Issue&Volume:Volume 570 Issue 7760, 13 June 2019

Abstract: HIV/AIDS is a leading cause of disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Existing evidence has demonstrated that there is substantial local variation in the prevalence of HIV; however, subnational variation has not been investigated at a high spatial resolution across the continent. Here we explore within-country variation at a 5 × 5-km resolution in sub-Saharan Africa by estimating the prevalence of HIV among adults (aged 15–49 years) and the corresponding number of people living with HIV from 2000 to 2017. Our analysis reveals substantial within-country variation in the prevalence of HIV throughout sub-Saharan Africa and local differences in both the direction and rate of change in HIV prevalence between 2000 and 2017, highlighting the degree to which important local differences are masked when examining trends at the country level. These fine-scale estimates of HIV prevalence across space and time provide an important tool for precisely targeting the interventions that are necessary to bringing HIV infections under control in sub-Saharan Africa.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1200-9

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1200-9