研究人员对189个国家1990-2017年的主要酒精暴露指标进行了估计，并对2030年的结果进行了预测，这一成果由德国德累斯顿大学临床心理与心理治疗研究所Jakob Manthey研究小组取得。 相关论文发表在2019年6月22日出版的《柳叶刀》上。

课题组对1990年至2017年189个国家的酒精暴露主要指标进行了估计，并预测至2030年。 成年人人均酒精消费量（(成人纯酒精消费量L（≥15岁)）以2016年之前国家验证数据为基础。 利用多元对数正态混合泊松分布模型对2030年的预测结果进行了分析。 使用来自149个国家的调查数据，从狄利克雷回归考察终生戒酒和当前饮酒的流行程度。 根据118个国家的调查数据，采用部分反应回归法估计了重度间歇性饮酒的患病率(目前饮酒者中至少有一次摄入60克纯酒精的情况在30天内出现)。 1990年至2017年，全球成年人人均消费从5·9 L (95% CI 5·8-6·1)增加到6·5 L(6·0-6·9)，预计到2030年将达到7·6 L(6·5 - 10·2)。 在全球范围内，终生戒酒的患病率从1990年的46%(42-49)下降到2017年的43%(40-46)，尽管这不是一个显著的下降，而当前饮酒的患病率从1990年的45%(41-48)上升到2017年的47%(44-50)。 该研究团队预测这两种趋势都将继续，到2030年，戒酒率将下降到40%(37-44)(年化下降0·2%)，到2030年，当前饮酒者的比例将上升到50%(46-53)(年化上升0·2%)。 2017年，20%(17-24岁)的成年人是重度饮酒者(1990年估计为18·5%[15·3-21·6%])，到2030年，这一比例预计将上升至23%(19-27岁)。根据这些数据，不太可能实现减少有害使用酒精的全球目标，应该执行已知的有效和具有成本效益的政策措施来减少酒精的接触。

酒精使用是全球疾病负担的主要风险因素，而酒精接触数据对于评估实现全球非传染性疾病目标的进展至关重要。

附：英文原文

Title: Global alcohol exposure between 1990 and 2017 and forecasts until 2030: a modelling study

Author: Jakob Manthey, Kevin D Shield, Margaret Rylett, Omer S M Hasan, Charlotte Probst, Prof Jürgen Rehm, 

Issue&Volume: VOLUME 393, ISSUE 10190, P2493-2502, JUNE 22, 2019

Abstract:

Background

Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden, and data on alcohol exposure are crucial to evaluate progress in achieving global non-communicable disease goals. We present estimates on the main indicators of alcohol exposure for 189 countries from 1990–2017, with forecasts up to 2030.

Methods

Adult alcohol per-capita consumption (the consumption in L of pure alcohol per adult [≥15 years]) in a given year was based on country-validated data up to 2016. Forecasts up to 2030 were obtained from multivariate log-normal mixture Poisson distribution models. Using survey data from 149 countries, prevalence of lifetime abstinence and current drinking was obtained from Dirichlet regressions. The prevalence of heavy episodic drinking (30-day prevalence of at least one occasion of 60 g of pure alcohol intake among current drinkers) was estimated with fractional response regressions using survey data from 118 countries.

Findings

Between 1990 and 2017, global adult per-capita consumption increased from 5·9 L (95% CI 5·8–6·1) to 6·5 L (6·0–6·9), and is forecasted to reach 7·6 L (6·5–10·2) by 2030. Globally, the prevalence of lifetime abstinence decreased from 46% (42–49) in 1990 to 43% (40–46) in 2017, albeit this was not a significant reduction, while the prevalence of current drinking increased from 45% (41–48) in 1990 to 47% (44–50) in 2017. We forecast both trends to continue, with abstinence decreasing to 40% (37–44) by 2030 (annualised 0·2% decrease) and the proportion of current drinkers increasing to 50% (46–53) by 2030 (annualised 0·2% increase). In 2017, 20% (17–24) of adults were heavy episodic drinkers (compared with 1990 when it was estimated at 18·5% [15·3–21·6%], and this prevalence is expected to increase to 23% (19–27) in 2030.
Interpretation

Based on these data, global goals for reducing the harmful use of alcohol are unlikely to be achieved, and known effective and cost-effective policy measures should be implemented to reduce alcohol exposure.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32744-2

Source: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)32744-2/fulltext#