加拿大渥太华大学Peter Soroye团队研究发现气候变化导致各大洲大黄蜂普遍减少。相关论文于2020年2月7日发表在《科学》上。

气候变化可能会增加物种灭绝的风险，因为温度和降水开始超过物种历史上的耐受度。利用北美和欧洲66种大黄蜂物种的长期数据，他们测试了这种现象是否改变了大黄蜂物种灭绝或定居的可能性。气温升高的频率越来越高，可以预测物种的局部灭绝风险，定居在新地区的概率以及物种丰富度的变化。效应与土地用途的变化无关。在这项研究中开发的方法可以对物种内部与气候变化有关的种群灭绝-定居动态进行空间明确的预测，从而可以解释所观察到的地理领域在整个大陆上消失和扩展的模式。

据悉，温度升高的频率超过了历史上观察到的容限，这有助于解释大黄蜂物种的普遍减少。这种现象也可能更普遍地导致生物多样性的丧失。

附：英文原文

Title: Climate change contributes to widespread declines among bumble bees across continents

Author: Peter Soroye, Tim Newbold, Jeremy Kerr

Issue&Volume: 2020/02/07

Abstract: Climate change could increase species’ extinction risk as temperatures and precipitation begin to exceed species’ historically observed tolerances. Using long-term data for 66 bumble bee species across North America and Europe, we tested whether this mechanism altered likelihoods of bumble bee species’ extinction or colonization. Increasing frequency of hotter temperatures predicts species’ local extinction risk, chances of colonizing a new area, and changing species richness. Effects are independent of changing land uses. The method developed in this study permits spatially explicit predictions of climate change–related population extinction-colonization dynamics within species that explains observed patterns of geographical range loss and expansion across continents. Increasing frequencies of temperatures that exceed historically observed tolerances help explain widespread bumble bee species decline. This mechanism may also contribute to biodiversity loss more generally.

DOI: 10.1126/science.aax8591

Source: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6478/685