论文标题：Quantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate

期刊：Nature Communications

作者：Megan Lickley, Susan Solomon et.al

发表时间：2020/03/17

数字识别码：10.1038/s41467-020-15162-7

微信链接：点击此处阅读微信文章

《自然-通讯》发表的一项研究Quantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate发现，一些仍在使用的较老旧应用装置排放的氟氯烃（CFC）可能超过此前估计。这些排放或将推迟南极臭氧洞的恢复，并向大气中释放相当于90亿公吨的CO2。

CFC库估算和比较。

图片来源：Lickley, M., Solomon, S., Fletcher, S. 等

根据《蒙特利尔议定书》的定义，大部分国家已经同意在生产中停止使用CFC。但是，已投用产品的排放（CFC库）仍在继续。这些产品包括部分制冷机、空调设备和隔热泡沫。近期发现CFC-11排放意外增加，说明有必要对这些库的排放进行量化，以准确评估复产所造成的排放规模。

美国麻省理工学院的Megan Lickley和同事利用一种新的统计框架，评估了CFC库的规模以及其中CFC-11、CFC-12、CFC-113的相应排放量。结果表明，这些排放量比之前评估所显示的要高得多，占到了目前CFC-11和12估计排放量的一大部分（不包括2012年后由于复产增加的CFC-11排放量）。虽然《蒙特利尔议定书》允许在某些应用中继续使用CFC-113，但这里报告的排放水平超过了之前研究报告的水平，引发了对其来源的疑问。据作者估计，目前这些库的排放可能会让臭氧洞的恢复推迟6年，并向大气中释放相当于90亿公吨的CO2。作者认为，研究结果凸显出对CFC库进行回收和销毁以减少排放的必要性。

摘要：Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) banks from uses such as air conditioners or foams can be emitted after global production stops. Recent reports of unexpected emissions of CFC-11 raise the need to better quantify releases from these banks, and associated impacts on ozone depletion and climate change. Here we develop a Bayesian probabilistic model for CFC-11, 12, and 113 banks and their emissions, incorporating the broadest range of constraints to date. We find that bank sizes of CFC-11 and CFC-12 are larger than recent international scientific assessments suggested, and can account for much of current estimated CFC-11 and 12 emissions (with the exception of increased CFC-11 emissions after 2012). Left unrecovered, these CFC banks could delay Antarctic ozone hole recovery by about six years and contribute 9 billion metric tonnes of equivalent CO2 emission. Derived CFC-113 emissions are subject to uncertainty, but are much larger than expected, raising questions about its sources.

（来源：科学网）