研究人员根据未来(2020-2100)气候和土地使用的变化，建立了一个相互关联的陆地脊椎动物食物网的全球模型。该研究团队预测，到2100年，全球本地脊椎动物多样性将平均减少17.6%(±0.16% SE)，在中等排放量的情况下，共同灭绝将使初级灭绝的影响平均增加184.2%(±10.9% SE)。社区将失去接近一半的生态互动，从而降低营养复杂性、网络连通性和社区恢复力。该模型显示，与对生态网络结构的破坏相比，全球变化对脊椎动物多样性造成的极端损失可能是次要的。
据介绍，虽然理论上认为共同灭绝是生物多样性丧失的主要驱动因素，但它们在全球范围内的作用尚未得到估计。
附：英文原文
Title: Coextinctions dominate future vertebrate losses from climate and land use change
Author: Giovanni Strona, Corey J. A. Bradshaw
Issue&Volume: 2022-12-16
Abstract: Although theory identifies coextinctions as a main driver of biodiversity loss, their role at the planetary scale has yet to be estimated. We subjected a global model of interconnected terrestrial vertebrate food webs to future (2020–2100) climate and land-use changes. We predict a 17.6% (± 0.16% SE) average reduction of local vertebrate diversity globally by 2100, with coextinctions increasing the effect of primary extinctions by 184.2% (± 10.9% SE) on average under an intermediate emissions scenario. Communities will lose up to a half of ecological interactions, thus reducing trophic complexity, network connectance, and community resilience. The model reveals that the extreme toll of global change for vertebrate diversity might be of secondary importance compared to the damages to ecological network structure.
DOI: abn4345
Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abn4345