瑞士伯尔尼大学Joos, Fortunat的研究小组近日取得一项新成果。经过不懈努力，他们的最新研究提出了一种适应性减排方法，可以达到任何全球变暖目标。2022年12月1日，国际知名学术期刊《自然—气候变化》发表了这一成果。

课题组研究人员提出了一种适应性方法可以持续量化全球减排量，在±0.2°C误差范围内达到温度目标，仅基于对过去温度、辐射作用和排放统计数据的定期更新观测，而不是基于气候模式预测。

使用适中复杂性的地球系统模型对这种方法进行测试，结果表明，通过平稳的排放途径可以实现既定的目标。观测记录、气候敏感性、减排实施的有效性和估算CO₂当量排放量这些固有的不确定性指标与该方法的适应性特征相悖。该方法允许开发CO₂、CH₄、N₂O和其他试剂的排放轨迹，以迭代适应选定的温度目标。

据悉，《巴黎协定》的缔约方同意将全球变暖控制在2°C以下并追求将其控制到1.5°C。每5年开展一次全球盘点评估必要的减排量。

附：英文原文

Title: Adaptive emission reduction approach to reach any global warming target

Author: Terhaar, Jens, Frlicher, Thomas L., Aschwanden, Mathias T., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Joos, Fortunat

Issue&Volume: 2022-12-01

Abstract: The parties of the Paris Agreement agreed to keep global warming well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. A global stocktake is instituted to assess the necessary emissions reductions every 5years. Here we propose an adaptive approach to successively quantify global emissions reductions that allow reaching a temperature target within ±0.2°C, solely based on regularly updated observations of past temperatures, radiative forcing and emissions statistics, and not on climate model projections. Testing this approach using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity demonstrates that defined targets can be reached following a smooth emissions pathway. Its adaptive nature makes the approach robust against inherent uncertainties in observational records, climate sensitivity, effectiveness of emissions reduction implementations and the metric to estimate CO₂ equivalent emissions. This approach allows developing emission trajectories for CO₂, CH₄, N₂O and other agents that iteratively adapt to meet a chosen temperature target.

DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01537-9

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01537-9