美国哥伦比亚大学Bartusek, Samuel的研究团队的一项最新研究表明，在2021年，北美热浪被气候变化所驱动的非线性相互作用放大。这一研究成果发表在2022年11月24日出版的国际学术期刊《自然—气候变化》上。

研究人员发现，慢速和快速移动的大气环流成分相互作用，加上区域土壤缺乏水分，引发了5-sigma热事件。其严重程度被其驱动因素之间的非线性相互作用放大了约40%，部分原因可能是长期区域变暖和土壤干燥催化的陆地-大气反馈。自20世纪50年代以来，全球变暖已经使该事件的每日区域温度异常峰值从几乎不可能变为目前估计约200年发生一次。全球气候的进一步变暖加速了这种可能性的发生，在比前工业化时期气温还要高2°C的气温条件下，会变成10年发生一次，可能在2050年达成。

据悉，在目前的气候条件下，许多人认为发生在2021年夏天的北美热浪超过之前的热浪是不可能的事。与之相关的严重影响强调了解热浪的物理驱动因素及其与气候变化的关系的必要性，以改进对未来极端高温风险的预测和预测。

附：英文原文

Title: 2021 North American heatwave amplified by climate change-driven nonlinear interactions

Author: Bartusek, Samuel, Kornhuber, Kai, Ting, Mingfang

Issue&Volume: 2022-11-24

Abstract: Heat conditions in North America in summer 2021 exceeded previous heatwaves by margins many would have considered impossible under current climate conditions. Associated severe impacts highlight the need for understanding the physical drivers of the heatwave and relations to climate change, to improve the projection and prediction of future extreme heat risks. Here, we find that slow- and fast-moving components of the atmospheric circulation interacted, along with regional soil moisture deficiency, to trigger a 5-sigma heat event. Its severity was amplified ~40% by nonlinear interactions between its drivers, probably driven in part by land–atmosphere feedbacks catalysed by long-term regional warming and soil drying. Since the 1950s, global warming has transformed the peak daily regional temperature anomaly of the event from virtually impossible to a presently estimated ~200-yearly occurrence. Its likelihood is projected to increase rapidly with further global warming, possibly becoming a 10-yearly occurrence in a climate 2°C warmer than the pre-industrial period, which may be reached by 2050.

DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01520-4

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01520-4