研究组使用了四个相互作用的气候倾翻要素的程式化网络模型，研究了一系列温度超调情景下倾翻的风险。模型分析显示，即使长期平衡温度稳定在巴黎范围内，与非超调情况相比，临时超调也会增加高达百分之72的倾翻风险。结果表明，避免高端气候风险只有在低温过度时才有可能，并且如果长期温度稳定在或低于今天的全球变暖水平。
据悉，当前的政策和行动极有可能（至少暂时）超过巴黎气候目标-比工业化前水平高出1.5–<2.0摄氏度。如果超过这一全球变暖范围，格陵兰冰盖和亚马逊雨林等潜在的危险因素可能会越来愈大，超过临界阈值。这就提出了一个问题，及增加超调幅度和持续时间会在多大程度上放大这种风险。
附：英文原文
Title: Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model
Author: Wunderling, Nico, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Rockstrm, Johan, Loriani, Sina, Armstrong McKay, David I., Ritchie, Paul D. L., Sakschewski, Boris, Donges, Jonathan F.
Issue&Volume: 2022-12-22
Abstract: Current policies and actions make it very likely, at least temporarily, to overshoot the Paris climate targets of 1.5–<2.0°C above pre-industrial levels. If this global warming range is exceeded, potential tipping elements such as the Greenland Ice Sheet and Amazon rainforest may be at increasing risk of crossing critical thresholds. This raises the question of how much this risk is amplified by increasing overshoot magnitude and duration. Here we investigate the danger for tipping under a range of temperature overshoot scenarios using a stylized network model of four interacting climate tipping elements. Our model analysis reveals that temporary overshoots can increase tipping risks by up to 72% compared with non-overshoot scenarios, even when the long-term equilibrium temperature stabilizes within the Paris range. Our results suggest that avoiding high-end climate risks is possible only for low-temperature overshoots and if long-term temperatures stabilize at or below today’s levels of global warming.
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01545-9
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01545-9