英国曼彻斯特大学Harou, Julien J.课题组研究发现，尼罗河适应性合作管理具有气候和社会经济不确定性的特点。相关论文于2023年1月9日发表于国际顶尖学术期刊《自然—气候变化》杂志上。

研究团队提出了一个尼罗河基础设施系统适应性管理的规划框架，结合气候预测、水文、河流系统和全经济模拟器以及人工智能多目标设计和机器学习算法，该团队为埃塞俄比亚复兴大坝设计了一个合作适应性管理政策，以平衡埃塞俄比亚、苏丹和埃及的跨境经济和生物物理利益，从而证明了该框架的实用性。研究表明，在极端的流量变化的气候预测下，如果三国在管理大坝方面进行合作和适应性的妥协，国家层面的经济和恢复力将获得巨大的收益。

据了解，气候变化给水文和社会经济影响的不确定性的尼罗河系统管理系统带来了挑战，特别是在对河流系统相关服务的需求迅速增长以及沿岸国家之间的政治紧张局势的情况下。尼罗河的合作适应性管理可以帮助缓解这些压力和紧张局势。

附：英文原文

Title: Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile River with climate and socio-economic uncertainties

Author: Basheer, Mohammed, Nechifor, Victor, Calzadilla, Alvaro, Gebrechorkos, Solomon, Pritchard, David, Forsythe, Nathan, Gonzalez, Jose M., Sheffield, Justin, Fowler, Hayley J., Harou, Julien J.

Issue&Volume: 2023-01-09

Abstract: The uncertainties around the hydrological and socio-economic implications of climate change pose a challenge for Nile River system management, especially with rapidly rising demands for river-system-related services and political tensions between the riparian countries. Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile can help alleviate some of these stressors and tensions. Here we present a planning framework for adaptive management of the Nile infrastructure system, combining climate projections; hydrological, river system and economy-wide simulators; and artificial intelligence multi-objective design and machine learning algorithms. We demonstrate the utility of the framework by designing a cooperative adaptive management policy for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam that balances the transboundary economic and biophysical interests of Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. This shows that if the three countries compromise cooperatively and adaptively in managing the dam, the national-level economic and resilience benefits are substantial, especially under climate projections with the most extreme streamflow changes.

DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01556-6

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01556-6