课题组展示了一个高分辨率的1500年前热带辐合带在热带地区迁移产生的复合石笋记录。当这一时间序列与来自亚热带的热带气旋重建相结合时，连同按比例缩小的气候模式模拟，提供了前所未有的对亚热带热带气旋活动对热带辐合带经向移动的依赖性的检验。热带气旋在几十年到一百年尺度上追踪热带辐合带的轨迹，更靠南的位置增强了亚热带热带气旋衍生的降雨。随着人为变暖导致亚热带干旱加剧，热带气旋可能在西澳大利亚的水分收支平衡中发挥越来越重要的作用。
据悉，热带气旋(TC)通常与热带辐合带(ITCZ)一起形成，因此，它的位置对全球热带气旋活动有影响。虽然在过去的几个世纪里，热带辐合带向极地延伸的范围发生了显著变化，但从代理记录中，特别是在南半球，人们对热带气旋响应的敏感性仍然知之甚少。
附：英文原文
Title: Sensitivity of northwest Australian tropical cyclone activity to ITCZ migration since 500 CE
Author: Rhawn F. Denniston, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, Kerry Emanuel, Roberto Ingrosso, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Alan D. Wanamaker, Matthew S. Lachniet, Kenneth T. Carr, Yemane Asmerom, Victor J. Polyak, Jonathan Nott, Wei Zhang, Gabriele Villarini, John Cugley, Darren Brooks, David Woods, William F. Humphreys
Issue&Volume: 2023-01-11
Abstract: Tropical cyclones (TCs) regularly form in association with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and thus, its positioning has implications for global TC activity. While the poleward extent of the ITCZ has varied markedly over past centuries, the sensitivity with which TCs responded remains poorly understood from the proxy record, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Here, we present a high-resolution, composite stalagmite record of ITCZ migrations over tropical Australia for the past 1500 years. When integrated with a TC reconstruction from the Australian subtropics, this time series, along with downscaled climate model simulations, provides an unprecedented examination of the dependence of subtropical TC activity on meridional shifts in the ITCZ. TCs tracked the ITCZ at multidecadal to centennial scales, with a more southward position enhancing TC-derived rainfall in the subtropics. TCs may play an increasingly important role in Western Australia’s moisture budgets as subtropical aridity increases due to anthropogenic warming.
DOI: add9832
Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.add9832