美国西北太平洋国家实验室Chen, Xiaodong和 Leung, L课题组宣布他们的最新研究揭示了美国西部寒冷季节风暴增强。2023年1月19日，国际知名学术期刊《自然—气候变化》发表了这一成果。

该课题组以区域风暴解决模拟为主题，研究气候变化对美国西部冬季风暴的影响。在高排放情景下，预计到本世纪中叶，该地区前20%冬季风暴的降水量将增加40%。降水量的平均增加(31%)，其中22%来自区域覆盖的增加，19%来自风暴强度的增加，而与风暴区的增加相比，随着风暴中心降水量的增加，风暴变得更加强烈，降水量减少10%。忽视风暴加剧可能会导致高估当前该地区基础设施规划中目前使用的设计风暴的变化。

据了解，冬季风暴给美国西部造成了数十亿美元的经济损失。由于全球气候模式不能很好地解决主题风暴结构问题，单个事件及其结构如何随着变暖而变化还没有得到很好的确定。

附：英文原文

Title: Sharpening of cold-season storms over the western United States

Author: Chen, Xiaodong, Leung, L. Ruby, Gao, Yang, Liu, Ying, Wigmosta, Mark

Issue&Volume: 2023-01-19

Abstract: Winter storms are responsible for billion-dollar economic losses in the western United States. Because storm structures are not well resolved by global climate models, it is not well established how single events and their structures change with warming. Here we use regional storm-resolving simulations to investigate climate change impact on western US winter storms. Under a high-emissions scenario, precipitation volume from the top 20% of winter storms is projected to increase by up to 40% across the region by mid-century. The average increase in precipitation volume (31%) is contributed by 22% from increasing area coverage and 19% from increasing storm intensity, while a robust storm sharpening with larger increase in storm centre precipitation compared with increase in storm area reduces precipitation volume by 10%. Ignoring storm sharpening could result in overestimation of the changes in design storms currently used in infrastructure planning in the region.

DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01578-0

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01578-0