研究人员对以冰盖模式输入的气候模式场引起的不确定性系统评估，研究组利用36个气候模式的输出驱动了一个南极冰盖(AIS)的三维模型，以模拟南极冰盖过去和未来的变化。模拟结果表明，在模拟的工业化前气候条件下，少数气候模式导致了西部南极冰盖的部分崩溃，南极冰盖体积在未来变化的范围与不同冰盖模式引起的结构不确定性相当。研究结果强调，在气候模式中，需要改进对极地气候重要的物理过程的描述。
据悉，由于冰盖不稳定过程，未来对不同气候情景下冰盖的预测及其对海平面变化的相关贡献存在很大的不确定性，阻碍了对海平面上升的适当风险评估和减缓/适应战略的制定。
附：英文原文
Title: Climate model differences contribute deep uncertainty in future Antarctic ice loss
Author: Dawei Li, Robert M. DeConto, David Pollard
Issue&Volume: 2023-02-15
Abstract: Future projections of ice sheets in response to different climate scenarios and their associated contributions to sea level changes are subject to deep uncertainty due to ice sheet instability processes, hampering a proper risk assessment of sea level rise and enaction of mitigation/adaptation strategies. For a systematic evaluation of the uncertainty due to climate model fields used as input to the ice sheet models, we drive a three-dimensional model of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) with the output from 36 climate models to simulate past and future changes in the AIS. Simulations show that a few climate models result in partial collapse of the West AIS under modeled preindustrial climates, and the spread in future changes in the AIS’s volume is comparable to the structural uncertainty originating from differing ice sheet models. These results highlight the need for improved representations of physical processes important for polar climate in climate models.
DOI: add7082
Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.add7082