斯堪的纳维亚半岛EURO-CORDEX域上原始和偏差校正后日最大风速的未来预测，这一成果由挪威卑尔根大学 Clio Michel的研究组经过不懈努力而取得。相关论文于2023年2月21日发表在《JGR大气》杂志上。

课题组使用分位数制图来调整历史时期(1985-2014)的风，并以3公里的空间分辨率的NORA3后向预测作为参考数据集的分位数增量制图来调整未来两个时期(2041-2070年,2071-2100年,RCP8.5)的风。分解方差，该团队发现大部分模式间的偏差的传播和对气候变化的响应主要受陆地的区域气候模式，主要是海洋的一般气候模式的影响。平均而言，除挪威和丹麦西海岸外，预计各地的平均日最大风速都将增加。

在夏天，课题组在瑞典和芬兰看到相反的迹象。挪威海经历了较弱的平均风和强风，而波罗的海经历了强风。偏差校正影响的是响应的振幅，而不是响应的模式。未来的风速分布可能会有不同的形状，例如，挪威海岸的风速分布会变平，出现更频繁的弱风和强风。除了挪威的一些地方，该课题组研究人员发现当地历史最高风力类别的天数有所增加。总的来说，与其他三个季节相比，夏季表现出相反的信号。在国家尺度上，平均值和第98百分位变化的符号因区域和模拟的不同而有很大差异，特别是挪威。

据介绍，对20个EURO-CORDEX域中历史上和未来的模拟进行了偏差修正，以研究斯堪的纳维亚半岛日最大风速的未来变化。

附：英文原文

Title: Future projections of EURO-CORDEX raw and bias-corrected daily maximum wind speeds over Scandinavia

Author: Clio Michel, Asgeir Sorteberg

Issue&Volume: 2023-02-21

Abstract: Twenty historical and future EURO-CORDEX simulations are bias corrected to investigate the future changes in the daily maximum wind speed over Scandinavia. We use quantile mapping to adjust the wind for the historical period (1985-2014) and quantile delta mapping for two future periods (2041-2070, 2071-2100, RCP8.5) with the 3-km spatial resolution NORA3 hindcast as the reference dataset. Decomposing the variance, we find that most of the inter-model spread in the bias and the response to climate change is due to the regional climate model over land and mainly to the general climate model over sea. On average, the mean daily maximum wind speed is projected to increase everywhere except along the western coast of Norway and Denmark. In summer, we see an opposite sign over Sweden and Finland. The Norwegian Sea experiences weaker mean and high wind whereas the Baltic Sea experiences a strengthening. Bias correction influences the amplitude of the response, not the response pattern. Wind speed distributions can have different shapes in the future, with, for example, a flattening of the distribution off the coast of Norway with more frequent weak and very strong winds. Apart from a few locations in Norway, we find an increase in the number of days in the local highest historical wind category. Overall, summer exhibits opposite signals compared to the three other seasons. At country scale, the sign of the change in the mean and 98th percentile varies greatly depending on the region and among the simulations, especially for Norway.

DOI: 10.1029/2022JD037953

Source: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022JD037953