瑞士日内瓦国际可持续发展所 Muttitt Greg课题组的一项最新研究研制了逐步淘汰煤电的社会政治可行性及其在缓解途径中的作用。2023年2月6日出版的《自然—气候变化》杂志发表了这项成果。
研究人员将综合评估模型限制在经济合作与发展组织/欧盟2023年煤炭能源联盟的差异化淘汰时间表内和其他地方的2050年，对于大型煤炭消费者来说，这是在历史过渡的范围内。研究发现将升温限制在1.5°C以内，全球北方的二氧化碳减排速度就需要比忽视这一社会政治现实加快50%。这种额外的缓解主要集中在欧洲和美国的运输和工业领域，这意味着全球石油和天然气产量将以更快的速度下降。
据了解，在IPCC途径中将变暖升温限制在1.5°C，由于其排放强度和可替代性，全球煤电发电量迅速下降。然而，该课题组发现，严重依赖煤炭的国家——中国、印度和南非——相对于系统规模而言，全国范围内的下降速度是历史上任何国家任何电力技术下降速度的两倍。这引发了关于社会政治可行性的问题。
附：英文原文
Title: Socio-political feasibility of coal power phase-out and its role in mitigation pathways
Author: Muttitt, Greg, Price, James, Pye, Steve, Welsby, Dan
Issue&Volume: 2023-02-06
Abstract: In IPCC pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C, global coal power generation declines rapidly due to its emissions intensity and substitutability. However, we find that in countries heavily dependent on coal—China, India and South Africa—this translates to a national decline twice as rapid as that achieved historically for any power technology in any country, relative to system size. This raises questions about socio-political feasibility. Here we constrain an integrated assessment model to the Powering Past Coal Alliance’s differentiated phase-out timelines of 2030 in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/European Union and 2050 elsewhere which, for large coal consumers, lies within the range of historical transitions. We find that limiting warming to 1.5°C then requires CO2 emissions reductions in the global North to be 50% more rapid than if this socio-political reality is ignored. This additional mitigation is focused on Europe and the United States, in transport and industry and implies more rapid decline in global oil and gas production.
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01576-2
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01576-2