预测在气候变化中热带生物群落的生物量净损失，这一成果由美国加州大学欧文分校Uribe Maria del Rosario和Brando Paulo M的团队经过不懈努力而取得。该研究于2023年2月6日发表于国际一流学术期刊《自然—气候变化》杂志上。

研究人员以气候和地上生物量含量之间的经验关系为主题，表明潮湿地区的收缩和干旱时期的扩张，导致了新热带地区的大量碳损失。在低排放情景下(代表性浓度路径4.5)，从1950-2100年，这可能导致地上活碳净减少约14.4-23.9 PgC(6.8-12%)。在高排放情景下(代表性浓度路径8.5)，热带地区的净碳损失可能会翻一番，达到约28.2-39.7PgC(13.3 -20.1%)。南美洲潮湿地区的收缩占了这一变化的40%左右。气候减缓战略可以防止一半的碳损失，并有助于维持热带自然净碳汇。

研究人员表示，热带生态系统以生物量的形式储存了世界上一半以上的地上活碳，而水的可用性在其分布中起着关键作用。尽管降水和温度在整个热带地区都在变化，但它们对生物量和碳储量的影响仍不确定。

附：英文原文

Title: Net loss of biomass predicted for tropical biomes in a changing climate

Author: Uribe, Maria del Rosario, Coe, Michael T., Castanho, Andrea D. A., Macedo, Marcia N., Valle, Denis, Brando, Paulo M.

Issue&Volume: 2023-02-06

Abstract: Tropical ecosystems store over half of the world’s aboveground live carbon as biomass, and water availability plays a key role in its distribution. Although precipitation and temperature are shifting across the tropics, their effect on biomass and carbon storage remains uncertain. Here we use empirical relationships between climate and aboveground biomass content to show that the contraction of humid regions, and expansion of those with intense dry periods, results in substantial carbon loss from the neotropics. Under a low emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) this could cause a net reduction of aboveground live carbon of ~14.4–23.9PgC (6.8–12%) from 1950–2100. Under a high emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) net carbon losses could double across the tropics, to ~28.2–39.7PgC (13.3–20.1%). The contraction of humid regions in South America accounts for ~40% of this change. Climate mitigation strategies could prevent half of the carbon losses and help maintain the natural tropical net carbon sink.

DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01600-z

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01600-z