中山大学刘智勇教授团队在研究流域出水量的稳定性中取得新进展。该研究成果于2024年1月11日发表于国际一流学术期刊《中国科学：地球科学》杂志上。

研究采用Budyko框架和CMIP6模式模拟，以探讨气候和基础特征对流域出水量的补偿效应。基于Taylor展开式和Budyko框架，研究人员估计了流域出水量对气候和基础特征(一阶和二阶偏导数)的敏感性。通过结合外部流域特征(如，出水量比和基础特征)与内部敏感性系数，进一步采用vine copula法和主成分分析法对流域出水量稳定性进行量化。

研究结果表明：(1)各气候带与气候相关的出水量变化，可以抵消与基础特征相关的出水量变化，保持出水量比的稳定(即补偿效应)。(2)未来全球流域对基础特征的敏感性将进一步增强，对气候变化的敏感性将进一步降低。在干旱气候的流域，气候和基础相关的敏感性都在增加。(3)未来流域出水量的稳定性将逐渐降低。从1901-1950年到2051-2100年，280个流域的全球稳定性从0.054下降到0.021(即由联合概率识别的稳定性指数)。其中，特别是在干旱地区，出水量稳定性变化最大，可达-0.347±0.18。

在半干旱、半湿润和湿润地区，变化幅度分别为-0.039±0.010、-0.028±0.005和-0.005±0.002。研究结果为未来气候变化背景下的水资源可持续开发提供了参考，同时也凸显了干旱半干旱流域水资源的脆弱性。

据悉，流域的水文系统受其基础特征和气候条件的复杂影响。在不断变化的环境背景下，了解出水量的变化对于有效的水资源管理和水安全至关重要。

附：英文原文

Title: Stability of water yield in watersheds

Author: Yu YAN, Zhiyong LIU, Xiaohong CHEN, Liyan HUANG

Issue&Volume: 2024-01-11

Abstract: The hydrological system of a watershed is intricately influenced by both underlying characteristics and climate conditions. Understanding the variability in water yield is essential for effective water resources management and water security in the context of changing environments. In this study, we adopted the Budyko framework and leveraged simulations from the CMIP6 model to investigate the compensation effects of climate and underlying characteristics on watershed water yield. Based on Taylor expansion and Budyko framework, we estimated the sensitivity of watershed water yield to climate and underlying characteristics (the first-and second-order partial derivatives). By combining external watershed characteristics (e.g., water yield ratios and underlying characteristics) with internal sensitivity coefficients, this study further used vine copula and principal component analysis to quantify the stability of watershed water yield. Our findings show: (1) Water-yield changes related to underlying characteristics could be offset by climate-related water-yield changes across all climate zones, maintaining the water yield ratio steady (i.e., the compensation effects). (2) However, global watersheds will turn more sensitive to underlying characteristics and less sensitive to climate variation in the future. Both climate- and underlying-related sensitivities increase in watersheds with arid climates. (3) The stability of watershed water yield will gradually diminish in the future. From 1901–1950 to 2051–2100, the global stability of 280 watersheds drops from 0.054 to 0.021 (i.e., stability index identified by the joint probability). Particularly, the largest change in stability of water yield reaches 0.347±0.18 in arid regions. In semi-arid, semi-humid, and humid regions, the changes are 0.039±0.010, 0.028±0.005, and 0.005±0.002, respectively. The findings provide a reference for the future sustainable water resources development under climate change, highlighting the vulnerability of the water resources in arid and semi-arid watersheds.

DOI: 10.1007/s11430-023-1206-4

Source: https://www.sciengine.com/10.1007/s11430-023-1206-4