江苏师范大学张新林和欧向军及其团队的一项最新研究，探明了中国地级市土地城市化的时空动态及其决定因素。相关论文发表在2024年1月23日出版的《中国地理科学》杂志上。

基于2010年和2020年土地利用变化和选取因素的数据集，研究人员采用可视化分析方法，揭示了中国地级市土地城市化的时空动态。同时，利用地理探测技术对土地城市化的驱动力进行了分析。研究发现：①地级市土地城市化存在显著的空间差异；目前，南北城市之间的土地城市化差异比沿海和内陆城市之间、东部和西部城市之间的差异更为明显。中国中西部地级市的土地城市化发展最为迅速。相反，中国东北地区的增长率最低，而东部地区的速度保持相对稳定。通过空间自相关分析，本研究揭示了地级市土地城市化水平具有显著的空间集聚性。

2)研究进一步发现，中国土地城市化受城市土地供需相关因素的影响，城市人口增长、经济增长、土地财政和政治激励对土地城市化的影响大于其他因素。3)研究还发现，决定因素对中国土地城市化的影响随时间的变化而变化，经济发展的解释力增加，而国家力量的解释力下降。研究结果强调，整合土地城市化的供给和需求因素可以更全面地理解中国和其他转型国家土地城市化的驱动机制，并有助于这些国家的决策者制定更详细和具体的土地城市化政策。

据介绍，研究土地城市化的时空动态及其决定因素，对于促进城市健康发展和土地资源合理利用具有重要意义。

附：英文原文

Title: Examining the Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Determinants of Land Urbanization in Prefecture-level Cities, China

Author: Yang, Zhen, Zhu, Huxiao, Zhang, Xinlin, Ou, Xiangjun

Issue&Volume: 2024-01-23

Abstract: Examining the spatiotemporal dynamics and determinants of land urbanization is critical for promoting healthy urban development and the rational use of land resources. Based on the dataset consisting of land use change data and selected factors in 2010 and 2020, this study used visual analysis to reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics of land urbanization across prefecture-level cities in China. Meanwhile, the driving forces underlying land urbanization were examined by using geographical detector technique. Following are the findings: 1) we find that there exist notable spatial variances in land urbanization across prefecture-level cities. Currently, the differentiation in land urbanization between the northern and southern cities is more pronounced than that between the coastal and inland cities, or between the eastern and western cities. Prefecture-level cities located in central and western China have experienced the most rapid growth in land urbanization. Conversely, the growth rate in northeastern China is the lowest, while the velocity in eastern China remains relatively stable. By using spatial autocorrelation analysis, this study reveals that the land urbanization level in prefecture-level cities has significant spatial agglomeration. 2) We further find that land urbanization in China is influenced by factors related to urban land supply and demand, and urban population growth, economic growth, land financial and political incentive have greater impact on land urbanization than other factors. 3) We also find that the impacts of determinants on China’s land urbanization vary over time, the explanatory power of economic development increased, while the explanatory power of state forces declined. We argue that integrating the supply and demand factors of land urbanization can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the driving mechanisms underlying land urbanization in China and other transitional countries, and help decision-makers in these countries formulate more detailed and specific land urbanization policies.

DOI: 10.1007/s11769-024-1407-z

Source: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11769-024-1407-z