研究人员表示，在气候变化的影响下，海洋热浪正在加剧，使造礁珊瑚种群面临大量死亡和强烈的选择压力。目前尚不清楚适应能否跟上变暖的步伐并维持珊瑚礁的功能。
该研究组开发了一个生态进化的元种群模型，Acropora是一个生态上重要但受到高度威胁的珊瑚分类群。小组发现，尽管珊瑚有一定的适应能力，但在未来几十年里，它们将遭受严重的热浪导致的衰退。
在未来，如果排放导致全球变暖~3°C，自然选择可能允许种群持续存在，即使在灭绝风险增加和生态系统功能潜在丧失的严重枯竭状态下。然而，要使对温度敏感的珊瑚种群在2050年后茁壮成长，就需要迅速减少温室气体排放，将全球变暖限制在2°C以内。
附：英文原文
Title: Natural selection could determine whether Acropora corals persist under expected climate change
Author: Liam Lachs, Yves-Marie Bozec, John C. Bythell, Simon D. Donner, Holly K. East, Alasdair J. Edwards, Yimnang Golbuu, Marine Gouezo, James R. Guest, Adriana Humanes, Cynthia Riginos, Peter J. Mumby
Issue&Volume: 2024-11-28
Abstract: Marine heatwaves are intensifying under climate change, exposing populations of reef-building corals to mass mortality and intense selective pressure. It remains unknown whether adaptation can keep pace with warming and maintain reef functioning. We have developed an eco-evolutionary metapopulation model for Acropora, an ecologically important yet highly threatened coral taxon. We find that although corals have some adaptation capacity, they will suffer severe heatwave-induced declines over the coming decades. For a future where emissions lead to ~3°C of global warming, natural selection could allow populations to persist, albeit in severely depleted states with elevated extinction risk and potential loss of ecosystem functioning. Yet, for thermally sensitive coral populations to thrive post-2050 demands rapid reductions of greenhouse gas emissions that limit global warming to 2°C.
DOI: adl6480
Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adl6480