兰州大学Yu LI团队最新的研究成果从古气候角度出发，揭示了全球变暖背景下青藏高原北部气候干湿变化的转变及其机制。相关论文于2024年3月18日发表于国际顶尖学术期刊《中国科学：地球科学》杂志上。

据介绍，青藏高原北部是受季风和西风影响的气候敏感区。夏季水汽输送可达青海湖和祁连山东段，在冬季，主要控制气候的是西风。本文从古气候的角度比较了该地区全新世中期暖期(MH)、中世纪气候异常期(MCA)、当前暖期(CWP)和未来暖期的干湿变化。

研究结果表明，MH暖期主要受轨道控制的东亚夏季风的影响，该区域呈现温暖湿润的气候特征。MCA主要受太阳辐射控制，存在温暖干燥的现象。CWP和未来暖期主要受温室气体增加导致的气温上升控制，气候正变得更加干旱。CWP干湿格局和青藏高原北部未来世纪的暖期与MCA相似。持续变暖将导致西风带扩张，气候逐渐湿润。未来干湿变化将更接近MH暖期。

附：英文原文

Title: Transformation and mechanisms of climate wet/dry change on the northern Tibetan Plateau under global warming: A perspective from paleoclimatology

Author: Yu LI, Zhansen ZHANG, Xueru ZHOU, Minjun GAO, Junjie DUAN, Yaxin XUE, Hao SHANG, Shiyu LIU

Issue&Volume: 2024/03/18

Abstract: The northern Tibetan Plateau is a climatically sensitive zone influenced by monsoon and westerly winds. In summer, water vapor transport can reach Qinghai Lake and the eastern section of the Qilian Mountains; in winter, westerly winds mainly control the climate. This article compares the wet/dry changes in the region during the mid-Holocene (MH) warm period, the medieval climate anomaly (MCA), the current warm period (CWP), and the future warm period from the perspective of paleoclimate. We found that the MH warm period was mainly affected by the orbit-controlled East Asian summer monsoon, and the region showed warm and humid climate characteristics. The MCA was mainly controlled by solar radiation, and there was a warm and dry phenomenon. The CWP and the future warm period are mainly controlled by the rise in temperature caused by the increase in greenhouse gases, and the climate is becoming more arid. The wet/dry patterns in the CWP and the future warm period in the next century on the northern Tibetan Plateau are similar to those in the MCA. Continued warming will lead to the expansion of the westerly belt and a gradually humid climate. The future wet/dry changes will be more similar to the MH warm period.

DOI: 10.1007/s11430-023-1260-6

Source: https://www.sciengine.com/10.1007/s11430-023-1260-6