湖南农业大学任辉团队报道了中国土地利用与陆地生态系统碳储量的历史变化与多情景预测。这一研究成果于2024年3月18日发表在《中国地理科学》上。

研究使用未来土地利用模拟(FLUS)模型生成了中国2030年和2060年分辨率1km的土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)数据集。基于中国陆地生态系统碳密度数据，研究人员分析了1990-2060年中国陆地生态系统碳密度变化及其与土地利用变化的关系。结果表明：1990-2020年中国土地利用的数量变化表现为耕地和草地面积比例下降，不透水面积和森林面积增加；预计这一变化趋势将在2020年至2060年的PSC中持续下去。

在SSPs-RCPs情景下，耕地和不透水地表的比例显著增加，而森林和草地的比例持续下降。1990-2020年，中国碳储量的碳损失达0.53×10¹²kg，主要是耕地和草地面积减少所致。在SSP4-RCP3.4情景下，碳损失更为显著，达到8.07×10¹²kg的峰值。碳损失主要集中在东南沿海和京津冀地区(BTH)，城市化和森林砍伐是碳损失的主要驱动因素。今后宜在稳定耕地面积和提高城市用地强度的同时，加强对森林和草原的保护。这些研究结果为中国土地管理政策、土地空间优化和实现双碳目标提供了有价值的数据支持。

据介绍，陆地碳储量在实现碳平衡和减缓全球气候变化方面发挥着至关重要的作用。本研究采用了政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布的共享社会经济路径和代表性浓度路径(SSPs-RCPs)，并纳入了中国土地管理政策规定的政策调控情景(PCS)。

附：英文原文

Title: Historical Changes and Multi-scenario Prediction of Land Use and Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage in China

Author: An, Yue, Tan, Xuelan, Ren, Hui, Li, Yinqi, Zhou, Zhou

Issue&Volume: 2024-03-18

Abstract: Terrestrial carbon storage (CS) plays a crucial role in achieving carbon balance and mitigating global climate change. This study employs the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSPs-RCPs) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and incorporates the Policy Control Scenario (PCS) regulated by China’s land management policies. The Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model is employed to generate a 1 km resolution land use/cover change (LUCC) dataset for China in 2030 and 2060. Based on the carbon density dataset of China’s terrestrial ecosystems, the study analyses CS changes and their relationship with land use changes spanning from 1990 to 2060. The findings indicate that the quantitative changes in land use in China from 1990 to 2020 are characterised by a reduction in the area proportion of cropland and grassland, along with an increase in the impervious surface and forest area. This changing trend is projected to continue under the PCS from 2020 to 2060. Under the SSPs-RCPs scenario, the proportion of cropland and impervious surface predominantly increases, while the proportions of forest and grassland continuously decrease. Carbon loss in China’s carbon storage from 1990 to 2020 amounted to 0.53 × 10¹² kg, primarily due to the reduced area of cropland and grassland. In the SSPs-RCPs scenario, more significant carbon loss occurs, reaching a peak of 8.07 × 10¹² kg in the SSP4-RCP3.4 scenario. Carbon loss is mainly concentrated in the southeastern coastal area and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region of China, with urbanisation and deforestation identified as the primary drivers. In the future, it is advisable to enhance the protection of forests and grassland while stabilising cropland areas and improving the intensity of urban land. These research findings offer valuable data support for China’s land management policy, land space optimisation, and the achievement of dual-carbon targets.

DOI: 10.1007/s11769-024-1424-y

Source: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11769-024-1424-y