据悉，2023年12月中旬，飓风Jasper袭击了澳大利亚昆士兰州北部，暴雨引发了大面积洪水。许多气象站报告的总降雨量超过1m，少数超过2m，这可能使Jasper成为澳大利亚历史上最潮湿的热带气旋。为了更好地为Jasper这样的事件做好准备，估计Jasper量级的降雨事件的概率，以及随着气候变暖这种概率可能如何演变是很有意义的。
为了做出这样的估计，研究人员将一种先进的热带气旋降尺度技术应用于九个全球气候模式，为最近的过去和本世纪末的气候生成了总共27,000个合成热带气旋。研究估计，Cairns热带气旋每年产生1m降雨的概率，从20世纪末的约0.8%增加到21世纪末的约2.3%，几乎增加了三倍。到2023年的插值频率表明，目前Jasper的年降雨量概率约为1.2%，比2000年增加了约50%。进一步的分析表明，降雨增加的主要原因是更强的气旋和更湿润的大气。
附：英文原文
Title: Cyclone Jasper’s rains in the context of climate change
Author: Emanuel, Kerry
Issue&Volume: 2024-4-1
Abstract: Cyclone Jasper struck northern Queensland in mid-December, 2023, causing extensive flooding stemming from torrential rain. Many stations reported rainfall totals exceeding 1 m, and a few surpassed 2 m, possibly making Jasper the wettest tropical cyclone in Australian history. To be better prepared for events like Jasper, it is useful to estimate the probability of rainfall events of Jasper’s magnitude and how that probability is likely to evolve as climate warms. To make such estimates, we apply an advanced tropical cyclone downscaling technique to nine global climate models, generating a total of 27,000 synthetic tropical cyclones each for the climate of the recent past and that of the end of this century. We estimate that the annual probability of 1 m of rain from tropical cyclones at Cairns increases from about 0.8% at the end of the 20th century to about 2.3% at the end of the 21st, a factor of almost three. Interpolating frequency to the year 2023 suggests that the current annual probability of Jasper’s rainfall is about 1.2%, about a 50% increase over that of the year 2000. Further analysis suggests that the primary causes of increasing rainfall are stronger cyclones and a moister atmosphere.
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2400292121
Source: https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2400292121