中国气象局孙颖团队取得一项新突破。他们研究报道了不同全球变暖水平下的中国极端高温预警指标变化。2024年4月28日，《中国科学：地球科学》发表了这一成果。

据悉，高温预警指标在气象部门中占有举足轻重的地位，是发布指导社会生产和日常生活的重要预警标准。尽管它们很重要，但探索不同全球变暖水平与高温预警指标变化之间关系的研究有限。

本研究分析了中国2,419个气象站的数据，并利用耦合模式比对项目第6阶段(CMIP6)模型，以检验中国气象局使用的高温预警指标的历史变化。研究使用年度周期偏差校正方法评估了模型的性能，和估计了这些指标的未来变化。结果表明，1961年以来，中国日最高气温达到或超过35℃和40℃的高温日数(TX35d和TX40d)和季节长度(TX40d和TX40l)呈增加趋势。

高温强度(TXx)增强，受高温影响的地理范围扩大。2022年，40℃高温出现暴增，东部地区TX40d增加2天，TX40l季节长度延长5天以上。CMIP6模型低估了历史时期与35℃相关的高温指标，但由于TX40d和TX40l的罕见情况，CMIP6模型与观测值之间没有观察到显著的差异。

然而，经过偏差校正后的未来预测表明，35°C和40°C高温日数和季节长度的增加趋势比原始预估更为明显，表明增加幅度比最初预测的更大。随着全球变暖的加剧，高温日数和季节长度将呈非线性增加，而高温强度将呈线性增加。全球气温每升高1°C，强度将上升约1.4°C。高温的影响正在扩大，中国的主要热点位于东部和西北部地区。在全球变暖5°C以下，中国某些地区可能会经历长时间的极端高温。例如，华北和长江流域等地区40°C的高温天数可能会增加约32天，季节长度可延长约100天。

附：英文原文

Title: Changes in extreme high temperature warning indicators over China under different global warming levels

Author: Yuxia ZHANG, Ying SUN, Ting HU

Issue&Volume: 2024/04/28

Abstract: High temperature warning indicators play a pivotal role in meteorological departments, serving as crucial criteria for issuing warnings that guide both social production and daily life. Despite their importance, limited studies have explored the relationship between different global warming levels and changes in high temperature warning indicators. In this study, we analyze data from 2,419 meteorological stations over China and utilize the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to examine historical changes in high temperature warning indicators used by the China Meteorological Administration. We evaluate model performance and estimate future changes in these indicators using an annual cycle bias correction method. The results indicate that since 1961, the number of high temperature days (TX35d and TX40d) and length of season (TX40d and TX40l) with daily maximum temperature reaching or exceeding 35°C and 40°C have increased over China. The intensity of high temperatures (TXx) has strengthened and the geographical extent affected by high temperatures has expanded. In 2022, the occurrence of 40°C high temperatures surges, with Eastern China experiencing a two-day increase in TX40d and an extended seasonal length in TX40l by over five days. While CMIP6 models have underestimated the high temperature indictors associated with 35°C during historical periods, notable difference is not observed between the models and observations for TX40d and TX40l, given their rare occurrence. However, future projections, after bias correction, indicate that the increasing trends for 35°C and 40°C high temperature days and length of season become more pronounced than the raw projection, suggesting a more severe increase than that anticipated originally. As global warming intensifies, the high temperature days and length of season are projected to increase non-linearly, while the intensity of high temperatures is expected to increase linearly. For every 1°C increase in global temperature, the intensity is projected to rise by approximately 1.4°C. The impact of high temperatures is expanding, with the major hotspot for China located in the eastern and northwestern regions. Under 5°C global warming, certain regions in China may experience prolonged extreme high temperatures. For instance, 40°C high temperature days in areas like North China and the Yangtze River Basin could increase by about 32d, and the length of season could extend by approximately 100d.

DOI: 10.1007/s11430-023-1299-1

Source: https://www.sciengine.com/10.1007/s11430-023-1299-1