中国科学院遗传与发育生物学研究所沈彦俊团队，报道了未来气候变化对中国大清河上游盆地径流影响的比较评估。2024年5月15日，国际知名学术期刊《中国地理科学》发表了这一成果。

据介绍，评估径流变化非常重要，特别是其对当地尺度流域预估未来气候变化的响应，因为这类分析通常是在全球和区域尺度上进行的，可能会得出广义而不是具体的结论。过去气候变化影响了大清河盆地上游径流的变化，然而，气候被认为是不确定的，需要进一步研究，特别是未来气候对径流的影响，以便更好地进行水资源管理和规划。

研究结合一系列气候模拟，采用日概念水文模型（MIKE11-NAM）评估气候变化对大清河盆地上游Daomaguan、Fuping和Zijingguan径流状况的影响。历史水文数据（2008-2017年）用于评估MIKE11-NAM模型的适用性。经过偏差校正后，对未来气候变化及其对径流的影响(2025-2054)进行了分析，并与基于耦合模式比对项目第6阶段(CMIP6)模拟的3种共享社会经济路径(SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5)情景的基线期(1985-2014)进行了比较。MIKE-11 NAM模型适用于所有三个盆地，在校准(2009-2011)和验证(2012-2017)期间，R²和Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数在日尺度上分别大于0.6。

尽管存在不确定性，但与基线相比，所有盆地在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下，所有盆地的降水量和温度降分别出现出更高的增幅。在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下，降水变化将在12%-19%之间，而温度变化将分别为2.0°C-2.5°C。此外，预计较冷月份的升温幅度高于较暖月份。总体而言，这三个盆地的径流对气候变化的响应不同，因为在SSP2-4.5情景下，Fuping盆地的径流增加，而在所有情景下，Daomaguan和Zijingguan盆地的径流都减少。结果强调了该项研究的发现在制定气候变化和水资源管理的缓解战略时的重要性。

附：英文原文

Title: Comparative Assessment of Impacts of Future Climate Change on Runoff in Upper Daqinghe Basin, China

Author: Ingabire, Romaine, Chang, Yuru, Liu, Xia, Cao, Bo, Umugwaneza, Adeline, Shen, Yanjun

Issue&Volume: 2024-05-15

Abstract: Assessing runoff changes is of great importance especially its responses to the projected future climate change on local scale basins because such analyses are generally done on global and regional scales which may lead to generalized conclusions rather than specific ones. Climate change affected the runoff variation in the past in the upper Daqinghe Basin, however, the climate was mainly considered uncertain and still needs further studies, especially its future impacts on runoff for better water resources management and planning. Integrated with a set of climate simulations, a daily conceptual hydrological model (MIKE11-NAM) was applied to assess the impact of climate change on runoff conditions in the Daomaguan, Fuping and Zijingguan basins in the upper Daqinghe Basin. Historical hydrological data (2008–2017) were used to evaluate the applicability of the MIKE11-NAM model. After bias correction, future projected climate change and its impacts on runoff (2025–2054) were analysed and compared to the baseline period (1985–2014) under three shared social economic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) scenarios from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations. The MIKE-11 NAM model was applicable in all three Basins, with both R2 and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficients greater than 0.6 at daily scale for both calibration (2009–2011) and validation (2012–2017) periods, respectively. Although uncertainties remain, temperature and precipitation are projected to increase compared to the baseline where higher increases in precipitation and temperature are projected to occur under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively in all the basins. Precipitation changes will range between 12%–19% whereas temperature change will be 2.0°C–2.5°C under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. In addition, higher warming is projected to occur in colder months than in warmer months. Overall, the runoff of these three basins is projected to respond to projected climate changes differently because runoff is projected to only increase in the Fuping basin under SSP2-4.5 whereas decreases in both Daomaguan and Zijingguan Basins under all scenarios. This study’s findings could be important when setting mitigation strategies for climate change and water resources management.

DOI: 10.1007/s11769-024-1433-x

Source: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11769-024-1433-x