据了解，北极海冰的持续和预计的退缩引起了国际社会对利用北极海上走廊进行航运、旅行和开发的兴趣。然而，随着北极地区交通量的增加，考虑受气候变化影响的其他环境变量可能会威胁到海上作业。
该课题组人员使用4种气候模式预测用于产生海浪模拟，并调查未来海冰风险以及海浪危害的大小和季节性。研究分析了2020年至2070年间西北航道沿线7-11月的潜在5个月航运季节，结果显示，在分析期间，海冰风险大幅下降，导致航道沿线在2070年前的5个月内处于接近开放水域的状态。
然而，随着季节性冰覆盖的减少，7月和11月期间，沿线的浪高有明显的上升趋势，最大浪高的时间从9月向季节后期转移。这一结果是恰当的，因为季节性前所未有的极端海浪的可能性，加上深秋零下的温度，造成了一个特别危险的环境。研究结果强调了在预测北极海上作业面临的风险和挑战时，考虑不断变化的海冰和相互依存的危害之间相互作用的重要性。
附：英文原文
Title: Evolving Arctic maritime hazards: Declining sea ice and rising waves in the Northwest Passage
Author: Henke, Martin T., Miesse, Tyler, de Souza de Lima, Andre, Ferreira, Celso, Ravens, Thomas, Pundt, Ralph
Issue&Volume: 2024-7-8
Abstract: The ongoing and projected retreat of Arctic sea ice has garnered international interest toward the utilization of Arctic maritime corridors for shipping, tourism, and development. Yet, with potential for increasing traffic in Arctic regions, it’s important to consider additional environmental variables affected by climate change which may threaten maritime operations. Here, we use four climate model projections to produce ocean wave simulations and investigate the future magnitude and seasonality of sea ice risk coupled with wave hazards. Analyzing the potential 5 mo shipping season spanning July to November along the Northwest Passage maritime route between 2020 and 2070, our results show a substantial decline in sea ice risk over the analysis time period, resulting in near open-water conditions along the route for a 5 mo period by 2070. However, as seasonal ice coverage retreats, there is a significant upward trend in wave heights along the route during July and November, with the timing of the greatest wave height shifting away from September toward later in the season. This result is pertinent as the possibility of seasonally unprecedented extreme waves coupled with subfreezing late fall temperatures makes for an especially hazardous environment, thus emphasizing the importance of considering the interaction between evolving sea ice and interdependent hazards when predicting the risks and challenges faced by Arctic maritime operations.
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2400355121
Source: https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2400355121