论文题目：Towards Quantitatively Understanding the Complexity of Social-Ecological Systems--From Connection to Consilience

作者：Xiao-Bing Hu et al.

发表时间：2017/10/31

数字识别码：10.1007/s13753-017-0146-5

摘要：The complexity of social-ecological systems (SES) is rooted in the outcomes of node activities connected by network topology. Thus far, in network dynamics research, the connectivity degree (CND), indicating how many nodes are connected to a given node, has been the dominant concept. However, connectivity focuses only on network topology, neglecting the crucial relation to node activities, and thereby leaving system outcomes largely unexplained. Inspired by the phenomenon of “consensus of wills and coordination of activities” often observed in disaster risk management, we propose a new concept of network characteristic, the consilience degree (CSD), aiming to measure the way in which network topology and node activities together contribute to system outcomes. The CSD captures the fact that nodes may assume different states that make their activities more or less compatible. Connecting two nodes with in/compatible states will lead to outcomes that are un/desirable from the perspective of the SES in question. We mathematically prove that the CSD is a generalized CND, and the CND is a special case of CSD. As a general, fundamental concept, the CSD can facilitate the development of a new framework of network properties, models, and theories that allows us to understand patterns of network behavior that cannot be explained in terms of connectivity alone. We further demonstrate that a co-evolutionary mechanism can naturally improve the CSD. Given the generality of co-evolution in SES, we argue that the CSD is an inherent attribute rather than an artificial concept, which underpins the fundamental importance of the CSD to the study of SES.

北京师范大学地理科学学部史培军教授创新群体刊发于 International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 的研究成果“Towards Quantitatively Understanding the Complexity of Social-Ecological Systems--From Connection to Consilience”（史培军教授和胡小兵博士为共同通讯作者）最近入选施普林格﹒自然（Springer Nature）“改变世界，一刊一文”（Change the World, One Article at a Time）行动精选论文。

该研究受综合灾害风险管理实践中“凝心聚力，共度时艰”现象的启发，开创性地提出了“凝聚度”这一基础性、普适性的网络属性，证明了凝聚度是被普遍化了的联结度，而联结度只是凝聚度的一种特例，并拓展出了一系列的网络系统新属性和新模型，从而形成了一套研究复杂系统的全新理论体系。网络“凝聚度”理论为全面理解现实复杂网络系统中诸如“凝心聚力”等常见现象提供了崭新的视角，为提高和优化诸如社会–生态系统的抗打击能力提供了有效的方法。基于凝聚度的新网络理论体系能够有效描述与测度由于诸如信号同步程度、设备兼容性、合作意愿、社会价值、个人态度或文化多样性等因素引起的系统性能差异，首次使得对“貌合神离”“三个和尚没水吃”“众人拾材火焰高”“人心齐泰山移”等系统现象进行数学描述和科学解释成为可能，具有广泛的实际应用意义。

施普林格﹒自然旨在通过“改变世界，一刊一文”行动的实施，让FC碰碰胡老虎机法典-提高赢钱机率的下注技巧的科研人员去关注有关重大社会挑战的研究，来帮助发掘应对现实挑战的科研解决方案。此次行动精选出施普林格﹒自然旗下期刊2017年发表的250多篇具有开创研究的文章，这些文章入选是因为其中的科研成果有可能对于解决社会重大挑战产生重要影响。

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图1. 凝聚度能够定量区分出两个具有相同组织架构和人力资源的网络系统的性能差异。

图2. 自然界普遍存在的协同进化机制可以自动提升网络系统的凝聚度水平，从而证明凝聚度是现实网络系统的一个重要内在属性。

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